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Should you bulk or cut first?

Short answer

Bulk if you are skinny or skinny-fat and after visible muscle for the first time; cut if there is fat you want gone and you are not underweight; recomp if the scale is fine and the mirror is not. A bulk is maintenance +12.5% and +0.375% of body weight a week; a cut is −17.5% and −0.625% of body weight a week; a recomp holds both.

Numbers computed from the Month6 engine; last checked .

One engine, three settings

Calories, protein and weekly weight change by goal
GoalCaloriesProteinScale, per week
Build muscle (bulk)+12.5%1.8 g/kg+0.375% of body weight
Lose fat (cut)−17.5%2.2 g/kg−0.625% of body weight
Both (recomp)maintenance2 g/kg0

Nothing else differs. The training plan, the check-in and the projection are the same arithmetic; only these three numbers move.

Six months of each, on an example body

Projected change by month six for three example bodies
ExampleGoalMuscleFat
21-year-old man, 178 cm, 63 kg, never liftedBulk+5.8 kg—
32-year-old man, 178 cm, 76 kg, 20% body fatCut—−9.4 kg
27-year-old woman, 165 cm, 62 kg, 28% body fatRecomp+1.4 kg−1.4 kg

Invented examples, labelled as such; estimates that assume at least 80% adherence. On a bulk the card prints muscle only and on a cut fat only, because that is the number each phase is for.

The bulk that does not make you fat

A surplus of +12.5%is modest on purpose, and the engine caps each week's gain so that no more fat is added than muscle. A beginner's rate fills that cap; a slower gainer is held to a smaller surplus. That is why an experienced lifter's bulk projects a smaller weight change than the surplus alone would suggest.

Questions

An estimate for healthy adults, not medical advice. How every number is made, with its citations: Sources & method.

Your own numbers

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In Month6 the three goals are one engine with different targets — switch at any time, and the six-month curve, the protein ring and the plan move together.

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